BusinessExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Probability

40¢

-1.0pp

24h

+3.5pp

24h Vol

$829.63

Liquidity

$4.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-25.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 02:46

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 5997.2h
LOW
02:46Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5997h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
02:00Price
Probability down -18.0pp
to 41¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -17.0pp
to 42¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability down -17.0pp
to 42¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -16.5pp
to 42¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -16.0pp
to 43¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -11.5pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -13.0pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -13.0pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability down -12.0pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability down -9.0pp
to 49¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -11.0pp
to 48¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -11.5pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -11.5pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -20.5pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -21.0pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -20.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -21.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -21.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -21.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -20.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -17.0pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -13.5pp
to 42¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -25.5pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -24.5pp
to 33¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -26.5pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -7.0pp
to 57¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.0pp
to 57¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.0pp
to 57¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a MacBook with a touchscreen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a MacBook with a touchscreen by Apple will only count if it is explicitly branded a MacBook. For example, an iMac will not qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". A qualifying touchscreen must be a true screen; a touch bar will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket