Infantile-Penalty
0xee02fcc92630df314cc3be36f55bfb5b94e51d20
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$221.13
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$91.30
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
291 shares @ 77.6¢·now 50.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.59
$-80.26
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
500 shares @ 5.0¢·now 9.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$45.50
$20.50
- YES
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?
1198 shares @ 16.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$29.94
$-161.59
- YES
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?
14 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.10
$-2.58
- YES
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?
3083 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-145.52
- YES
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?
1437 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-570.36
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
1000 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
975 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-312.04
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
619 shares @ 83.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-514.14
- NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
500 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-420.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $15.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 03:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.