OtherExpires Jan 1, 2027

Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Probability

34¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$555.89

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 21:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:51
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 34¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6008h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 18.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6008.1h

    LOW
  • 20:51Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 6008h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+5.5pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at 05:00 (to 34¢).

Show all 14 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 20:00 · +4.0pp → 34¢
  • 19:00 · +4.0pp → 34¢
  • 17:00 · +4.0pp → 34¢
  • 16:00 · +4.0pp → 34¢
  • 15:00 · +4.0pp → 34¢
  • 13:00 · +5.0pp → 34¢
  • 12:00 · +4.5pp → 34¢
  • 10:00 · +4.5pp → 34¢
  • 09:00 · +3.5pp → 34¢
  • 08:00 · +5.0pp → 34¢
  • 06:00 · +5.0pp → 34¢
  • 05:00 · +5.0pp → 34¢
  • 03:00 · +3.0pp → 34¢
  • 02:00 · +3.5pp → 34¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ventual's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ventuals (https://x.com/ventuals) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
using the total token supply multiplied by the token price
Link
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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