Grotesque-Mattress
0xef172820256270606aed99731f77b8547d766583
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$137.41
Total PnL
$-967.93
Realised
$-130.37
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
101 shares @ 71.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$76.56
$4.56
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
86 shares @ 69.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$60.53
$0.53
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.32
$-0.68
- NO
Tria FDV above $100M one day after launch?
217 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
118 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
93 shares @ 37.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-34.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4AM ET
86 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2025$0.00
$-79.79
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 31?
86 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
US government shutdown in 2025?
82 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$72.00Jul 18, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$69.09Jul 18, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea" be the top US Netflix movie this week?$70.14Jul 18, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$30.00Jul 18, 03:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$59.99Jul 18, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$35.85Jul 17, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$30.00Jul 15, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$50.00Jul 13, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMIasi Open: Alina Charaeva vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva$87.76Jul 13, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIasi Open: Alina Charaeva vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva$30.00Jul 13, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas$30.21Jul 13, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYAthens Open: Magda Linette vs Mai Hontama$30.25Jul 13, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIasi Open: Alina Charaeva vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva$50.23Jul 13, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKitzbuehel: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Ekaterina Perelygina$30.30Jul 13, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Minions & Monsters" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 20m?$156.79Jul 13, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 44m?$13.85Jul 13, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwedish Open, Qualification: Thomas Faurel vs Miguel Damas$24.14Jul 13, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.00Jul 13, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$30.30Jul 12, 05:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$48.86Jul 12, 05:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $54.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 07:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 15:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.