Sentimental-Goodbye
0xef220c3043ac41efc37c0521290fff82ab668c02
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$285.23
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?
10313 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$139.23
$26.48
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
6000 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$114.00
$-123.73
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 20 2026?
1000 shares @ 11.8¢·now 3.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$32.00
$-86.01
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?
25000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-243.78
- YES
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
20032 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-82.21
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
20001 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-252.85
- YES
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?
15976 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-41.20
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?
10001 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-75.99
- YES
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco?
10000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-38.44
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
7800 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-297.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?$21.00Jul 22, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?$24.00Jul 22, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?$27.23Jul 22, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?$35.17Jul 21, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?$8.01Jul 21, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$42.02Jul 21, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 20 2026?$1.24Jul 21, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 20 2026?$120.93Jul 21, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$46.00Jul 21, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$33.39Jul 19, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$10.59Jul 19, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$26.17Jul 19, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$165.57Jul 19, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$15.00Jun 29, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$16.22Jun 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?$30.01Jun 28, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYCyle Larin: 1+ shots$3.00Jun 28, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYCyle Larin: 1+ shots$2.00Jun 28, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYCyle Larin: 2+ shots$10.00Jun 28, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada?$24.63Jun 28, 17:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $17.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 20:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 22:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.