Perfect-Licence
0xef340ebd9aae1b4dd825c3dff220b7272aa21d61
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-624.74
Realised
$87.07
Win rate
5%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
800 shares @ 53.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$572.00
$141.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 61.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$182.99
$61.00
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 80.7¢·now 77.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$154.20
$-7.20
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 52.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$91.49
$39.50
- NO
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
111 shares @ 28.2¢·now 77.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$85.85
$54.68
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
100 shares @ 52.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$82.50
$30.50
- $140
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
121 shares @ 37.2¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$62.26
$17.37
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in August?
140 shares @ 56.3¢·now 42.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$58.80
$-20.00
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 15.7¢·now 15.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$30.10
$-1.30
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
360 shares @ 14.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$27.18
$-23.46
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Aug 23, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,300 in August?$16.80Aug 22, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?$55.51Aug 22, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $100 by December 31, 2026?$106.13Aug 22, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $140 by December 31, 2026?$0.35Aug 22, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,300 in August?$62.00Aug 22, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$3.19Aug 22, 00:48 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$65.70Aug 22, 00:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Aug 22, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$3.18Aug 21, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$3.17Aug 21, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$16.56Aug 21, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$3.18Aug 21, 19:06 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$20.00Aug 21, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?$18.89Aug 21, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$11.25Aug 21, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$64.31Aug 21, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$81.69Aug 21, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?$50.90Aug 21, 11:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?$150.00Aug 21, 03:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $41.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 02:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.