Dull-Badger-Rhubarb
0xef4713875c831de4ae74516a93f7e5cadbf46fb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$5.50
Total PnL
$-109.72
Realised
$-45.22
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.50
$0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 10?
203 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 10?
75 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
30 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Argentina vs Egypt FIFA World Cup Match?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$10.40Jul 23, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.35Jul 23, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.38Jul 23, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.04Jul 23, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$6.18Jul 23, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$5.11Jul 23, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$5.33Jul 23, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$12.64Jul 23, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$26.30Jul 23, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$26.29Jul 23, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$23.89Jul 23, 13:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$28.09Jul 23, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$26.10Jul 23, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$25.19Jul 23, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 13:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.18Jul 23, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$5.07Jul 23, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$3.30Jul 23, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$5.07Jul 23, 13:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $9.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 13:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 13:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.