Quizzical-Bolt
0xef6290ac2c47d07c7f61b5045261e4166858bcc2
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$367.38
Total PnL
$-152.11
Realised
$-1.74
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
110 shares @ 70.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$109.39
$31.89
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
70 shares @ 36.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.28
$21.22
- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
70 shares @ 70.6¢·now 57.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$40.25
$-9.15
- YES
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
54 shares @ 28.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$33.48
$18.48
- NO
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?
50 shares @ 49.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$30.00
$5.50
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
36 shares @ 55.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.73
$4.73
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
200 shares @ 4.9¢·now 11.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.60
$12.80
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
30 shares @ 68.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.05
$1.65
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
30 shares @ 68.7¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.40
$-4.26
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
80 shares @ 40.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.00
$-16.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: April$40.88May 12, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$10.13May 3, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$23.10May 3, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?$13.06May 3, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$21.19May 3, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$2.63May 3, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by June 30?$32.77May 2, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$28.65May 2, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?$25.00May 2, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$5.00May 2, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$54.40May 2, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$30.00May 1, 06:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?$50.00Apr 30, 23:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$77.04Apr 30, 23:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$60.00Apr 30, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta reach $730 in April?$4.95Apr 27, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon reach $276 in April?$3.29Apr 26, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta reach $730 in April?$1.65Apr 26, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta reach $730 in April?$3.10Apr 26, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$24.90Apr 25, 19:14 UTC
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $22.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 20:07 UTC
- Last active
- May 12, 16:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".