Will Amazon reach $276 in April?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+30.3pp
24h Vol
$618.33
Liquidity
$608.79
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 30pp over 24h
Now 50¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 135h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 11.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 134.8h
- 13:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 135h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:08PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 50¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 50¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 50¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.6pp
to 50¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.6pp
to 49¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.3pp
to 49¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.1pp
to 49¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.6pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.1pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.4pp
to 49¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.7pp
to 54¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.2pp
to 50¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.6pp
to 51¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.5pp
to 53¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.2pp
to 55¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.9pp
to 55¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.9pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.2pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.6pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.8pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.6pp
to 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).