Square-Trust
0xefddc1d3285d0fe1b9f2aa06e04901f527a08370
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$8.2K
Total PnL
$2.6K
Realised
$2.0K
Win rate
83%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
978 shares @ 72.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$665.22
$-39.21
- NO
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?
513 shares @ 86.2¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$506.49
$64.02
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
545 shares @ 65.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$501.40
$147.15
- NO
Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?
641 shares @ 50.7¢·now 69.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$443.62
$118.94
- NO
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
464 shares @ 81.6¢·now 94.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$436.25
$57.72
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
461 shares @ 84.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$389.55
$2.01
- NO
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?
377 shares @ 62.2¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$369.67
$135.31
- NO
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?
428 shares @ 67.7¢·now 82.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2026$351.35
$61.48
- NO
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?
342 shares @ 83.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$339.04
$53.51
- NO
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by July 30?
303 shares @ 90.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$294.94
$20.44
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$75.71Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by August 31?$4.38Jul 29, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$6.28Jul 29, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$4.86Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$12.00Jul 29, 02:04 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$62.62Jul 29, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$36.00Jul 29, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$55.00Jul 29, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$49.65Jul 29, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$42.50Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?$8.50Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?$102.70Jul 29, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$21.90Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$234.95Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$0.17Jul 29, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?$153.84Jul 29, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYReserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$104.54Jul 29, 00:23 UTC
- REWARD$0.41Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$179.40Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
76/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
40 closed markets, 83% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $66.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.