Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.6K
Liquidity
$25.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5997.1h
- 02:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5997h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 46¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 46¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 46¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 45¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 46¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 46¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 45¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).