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GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

Probability

46¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$1.6K

Liquidity

$25.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 02:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5997.1h

    LOW
  • 02:55Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5997h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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