Quarrelsome-Ferryboat
0xefe74985aa8bdca0a6fdad5516b32ea1ffec03a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$4.29
Total PnL
$-46.94
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.31
$0.01
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.97
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24?
1142 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.28
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17?
1126 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.38
- YES
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 7?
1106 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.64
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 12?
1101 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 9?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 15?
1093 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.56
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18?
1092 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7?
1089 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14?$2.10Jun 14, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 5?$2.14Jun 5, 01:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.71Jun 4, 00:25 UTC
- REWARD$0.25Jun 4, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$3.30Jun 2, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.40May 31, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 27?$2.12May 27, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.42May 22, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.40May 22, 01:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 21?$1.1KMay 21, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 21?$1.1KMay 21, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20?$1.1KMay 20, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20?$1.1KMay 20, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 19?$1.1KMay 19, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 19?$1.1KMay 19, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 18?$1.1KMay 18, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 18?$1.1KMay 18, 02:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 17?$1.1KMay 17, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 17?$1.1KMay 17, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 16?$1.1KMay 16, 19:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $308.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 01:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 04:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.