Knowledgeable-Dancing
0xf01a9a83421b61197397150090a4f9f06b2b4da8
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$9.60
Total PnL
$-210.92
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6 shares @ 86.3¢·now 86.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 36.8¢·now 42.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.17
$0.17
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.09
$0.09
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 76.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 64.6¢·now 15.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.24
$-0.76
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 31?
29792 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-29.79
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3?
21837 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-21.84
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- STARS
Stars vs. Red Wings
100 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-55.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$6.02Jul 18, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$6.17Jul 12, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$5.00Jul 11, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.03Jul 11, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$5.05Jul 11, 04:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?$1.02Jul 2, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$1.14Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?$1.08Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$12.78Jun 18, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$5.88Jun 14, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13?$31.75Jun 14, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-13?$20.22Jun 13, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$20.25Jun 13, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$41.67Jun 13, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$5.06Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$20.31Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.05Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$2.04Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?$10.00Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5?$10.31Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $5.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 09:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 06:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.