Timely-Photo
0xf01ac1aa9fef8eabc5e3c764747aabddaa90f231
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$283.51
Realised
$232.20
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 85.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$42.50
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 82.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$170.00
$5.50
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
246 shares @ 67.8¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$168.29
$1.69
- NO
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?
127 shares @ 81.2¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$116.90
$13.78
- NO
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
153 shares @ 41.1¢·now 67.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$103.25
$40.31
- YES
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
135 shares @ 47.3¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.58
$9.78
- NO
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?
54 shares @ 88.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.30
$3.49
- NO
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
85 shares @ 53.6¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$47.79
$2.00
- NO
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?
61 shares @ 59.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$47.02
$10.60
- YES
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?
222 shares @ 2.5¢·now 17.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$39.34
$33.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$15.00Jul 3, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?$6.25Jul 3, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$3.75Jul 3, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$7.50Jul 3, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?$7.50Jul 3, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31?$4.89Jul 3, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$8.10Jul 3, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?$8.21Jul 3, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$27.00Jul 3, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?$29.00Jul 3, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$31.86Jul 2, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$4.25Jul 2, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$31.88Jul 2, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?$606.62Jul 2, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?$7.17Jul 1, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$30.00Jul 1, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$67.99Jul 1, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$33.20Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$8.30Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$30.62Jul 1, 14:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $35.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 09:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 10:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.