Vivid-Magic
0xf028dff9c9c263d4d1f2b65ab431433312796c6b
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$709.65
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-31.74
Win rate
25%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
650 shares @ 16.2¢·now 33.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$216.74
$111.57
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 4?
100 shares @ 46.4¢·now 93.7¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$93.65
$47.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 4?
150 shares @ 35.4¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$81.75
$28.60
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
67 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.02
$3.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 5?
120 shares @ 37.2¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$56.40
$11.70
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
200 shares @ 17.6¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$42.22
$7.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 4?
140 shares @ 32.1¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$41.30
$-3.70
- YES
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
60 shares @ 71.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$36.90
$-5.70
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 5?
60 shares @ 55.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$33.30
$0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?
130 shares @ 27.1¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$25.37
$-9.91
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?$10.00Jul 3, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 4?$7.86Jul 3, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win on 2026-07-03?$3.48Jul 3, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance$2.88Jul 3, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 5?$18.07Jul 3, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 5?$11.25Jul 3, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 5?$22.50Jul 3, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 3?$100.00Jul 3, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 4?$8.10Jul 3, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?$3.47Jul 3, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-03?$4.17Jul 3, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 5?$2.41Jul 3, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 5?$2.46Jul 3, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?$3.51Jul 3, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 5?$3.61Jul 3, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?$5.11Jul 3, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?$1.36Jul 3, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?$1.65Jul 3, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?$2.07Jul 3, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?$1.50Jul 3, 09:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $9.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 07:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.