Failing-Mailbox
0xf049455e984beb1732084d19c1f8be93a6ca29fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$77.78
Total PnL
$-376.60
Realised
$4.90
Win rate
41%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
85 shares @ 77.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$59.07
$-6.38
- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.89
$10.96
- NO
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?
2 shares @ 32.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$1.97
$1.33
- YES
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
3 shares @ 52.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.68
$-0.89
- YES
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?
3 shares @ 51.0¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.17
$-1.36
- YES
Will Blue Prince win Most Innovative Gameplay in the 2025 Steam Awards?
440 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-62.04
- YES
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
433 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-56.29
- NO
Over $12M committed to the Space public sale?
211 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-50.64
- YES
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?
91 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.37
- NO
Will MrBeast hit 105.5 billion views by December 31?
85 shares @ 72.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-61.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$3.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?$4.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?$6.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$8.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$30.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$268.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$309.00May 21, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?$0.29Feb 8, 19:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$88.59Feb 8, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$265.74Jan 11, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$221.76Jan 11, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$45.76Jan 11, 11:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$41.36Jan 11, 11:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keon Ellis be traded this season?$70.40Jan 11, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$15.05Jan 11, 08:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$13.14Jan 11, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.60Jan 10, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$305.37Jan 10, 16:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $101.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 7, 04:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 08:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.