Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$1.43
Liquidity
$938.32
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3297h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $938 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3297.1h
- 14:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3297h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Rodgers retires from the NFL before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement from Rodgers that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred, as long as the announced retirement is stated to take effect before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Announcements that Rodgers will retire after the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Aaron Rodgers, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).