Concerned-Scotch
0xf07c42098cce8923efd08d34665d35f122d56dea
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$0.19
Total PnL
$-146.22
Realised
$0.26
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.19
$-1.00
- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
9500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-9.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?
119 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 5?
76 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
61 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 18?
60 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
58 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before July 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- OVER
Panama vs. England: O/U 7.5
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the game go to extra innings?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$15.95Aug 7, 04:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.10Aug 7, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7?$1.22Aug 7, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the game go to extra innings?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$15.04Aug 7, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$1.74Aug 6, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners$14.29Aug 6, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$1.51Aug 6, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners$13.06Aug 6, 01:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 4?$2.78Aug 4, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMReal Cundinamarca vs. Real Cartagena FC: O/U 0.5$10.99Aug 3, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYReal Cundinamarca vs. Real Cartagena FC: O/U 0.5$10.04Aug 2, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 4?$1.03Aug 2, 04:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$11.23Aug 1, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.01Jul 26, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.03Jul 24, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndependiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Caracas FC O/U 0.5$1.03Jul 24, 00:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?$7.13Jul 23, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 22?$5.07Jul 22, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?$5.38Jul 22, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?$5.02Jul 22, 02:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $12.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 00:54 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 04:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.