Favorable-Crayfish
0xf17db37ef4234b2b1b76b408a4d1d761d9136f86
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$548.21
Total PnL
$7.75
Realised
$7.43
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?
200 shares @ 88.2¢·now 90.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$181.79
$5.40
- YES
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?
235 shares @ 51.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$131.80
$11.70
- NO
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?
235 shares @ 43.1¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$101.05
$-0.25
- NO
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?
21 shares @ 77.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.17
$0.00
- YES
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?
169 shares @ 8.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.98
$-2.97
- NO
Will Jio Platforms IPO by September 30, 2026?
18 shares @ 66.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.45
$-2.43
- YES
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?
15 shares @ 59.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.40
$-0.45
- NO
Over $4B crypto hack value in 2026?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.29
$0.10
- NO
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $24B?
10 shares @ 50.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$8.23
$3.19
- NO
Printr FDV above $150M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 79.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$7.85
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELL1win vs Team Yandex: Draw (1-1)?$11.90Jul 12, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUY1win vs Team Yandex: Draw (1-1)?$11.99Jul 12, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?$27.47Jul 12, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $55B by July 31?$1.51Jul 12, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?$44.31Jul 12, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?$4.15Jul 12, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTeam Yandex to win 2-0?$4.06Jul 12, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELL1win vs Team Yandex: Draw (1-1)?$4.38Jul 12, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?$66.46Jul 12, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?$6.22Jul 12, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYPrintr FDV above $150M one day after launch?$8.02Jul 12, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYPrintr FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.89Jul 12, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?$38.98Jul 12, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?$4.10Jul 12, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $100M one day after launch?$13.44Jul 12, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?$11.43Jul 12, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUY1win vs Team Yandex: Draw (1-1)?$6.12Jul 12, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYTeam Yandex to win 2-0?$3.82Jul 12, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $250M one day after launch?$93.90Jul 12, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $100M one day after launch?$110.77Jul 12, 13:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 04:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 14:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.