Adventurous-Familiarity
0xf1a4be25118030418d1b389c88c1525041a7527c
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$2.6K
Win rate
31%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
500 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$493.75
$-0.25
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
687 shares @ 50.5¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$360.43
$13.51
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
100 shares @ 93.8¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$95.20
$1.40
- NO
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
278 shares @ 23.4¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$90.29
$25.41
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 47.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$84.99
$-9.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
90 shares @ 75.7¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$76.55
$8.45
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
142 shares @ 56.9¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.81
$-4.86
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
86 shares @ 53.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$64.26
$18.20
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
282 shares @ 13.9¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$40.95
$1.57
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
50 shares @ 53.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$38.75
$12.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$15.00Jul 21, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$14.00Jul 21, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$93.80Jul 21, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$494.00Jul 21, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$300.00Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 21, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$3.19Jul 21, 11:24 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$14.00Jul 21, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.29Jul 20, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$8.20Jul 20, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$43.00Jul 20, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$45.00Jul 20, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$50.00Jul 20, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$18.02Jul 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$14.00Jul 20, 07:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$10.64Jul 19, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$10.05Jul 19, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?$2.96Jul 19, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$4.85Jul 19, 22:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
51 closed markets, 31% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $29.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 02:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 22:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.