Excited-Pancreas
0xf1fddaa5047e7ea0188ecebf8effb2a3a6edb42c
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-519.18
Realised
$7.09
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
1915 shares @ 84.7¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.8K
$223.11
- NO
Will UNI reach $15.50 by December 31, 2026?
363 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$339.40
$12.59
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
355 shares @ 87.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$333.70
$24.85
- YES
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
800 shares @ 25.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$140.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
160 shares @ 80.4¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$136.00
$7.40
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?
107 shares @ 90.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$99.76
$2.77
- NO
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?
99 shares @ 76.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$97.19
$22.20
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 59.7¢·now 39.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$50.73
$-26.70
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
60 shares @ 51.7¢·now 66.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$40.05
$8.89
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
65 shares @ 18.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.93
$-7.77
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.18Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$429.99Jul 27, 21:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $62.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.