Intelligent-Quiche
0xf22e73273a79788adcee6fa41c76f729fccf18f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$616.00
Realised
$12.75
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
567 shares @ 27.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$566.62
$408.54
- RJ HARRIS
UFC Fight Night: Alvin Hines vs. RJ Harris (Heavyweight, Prelims)
412 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$411.61
$209.92
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
449 shares @ 82.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$379.52
$7.63
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
535 shares @ 50.2¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$281.01
$12.06
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
162 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$155.34
$17.72
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
287 shares @ 53.1¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$147.71
$-4.52
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
246 shares @ 64.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$146.46
$-11.08
- NO
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?
125 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$125.00
$1.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
130 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$122.85
$12.35
- NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?
109 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$109.10
$8.73
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$4.94Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$4.94Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$157.54Jul 21, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$4.99Jul 21, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$87.42Jul 21, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$11.90Jul 21, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$5.02Jul 21, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$5.03Jul 21, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$66.74Jul 21, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$0.03Jul 21, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$16.43Jul 21, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$8.70Jul 21, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$71.23Jul 21, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$73.18Jul 21, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$4.97Jul 21, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$5.02Jul 21, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?$9.53Jul 21, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?$4.99Jul 21, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?$10.98Jul 21, 10:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $26.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.