Lone-Fiesta
0xf24eb6e1bdaddb29ec3e2e6ccec5d91bfaffb640
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$146.96
Total PnL
$-512.09
Realised
$133.18
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
250 shares @ 16.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$97.38
$57.38
- YES
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
100 shares @ 40.7¢·now 40.6¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$40.62
$-0.13
- YES
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?
30 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.9¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$8.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?
15000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27?
9000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?
7905 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.70
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?
6900 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-28.68
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6192 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-115.03
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?
4967 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-11.76
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29?
4600 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-50.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Spain end in a draw?$9.31Jul 14, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$41.96Jul 14, 05:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$48.06Jul 5, 16:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 28, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $23.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 09:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 05:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.