Mortified-Wetland
0xf2cf3cf7863182c763bce60580a7d20e9333464b
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$156.30
Total PnL
$-5.0K
Realised
$28.93
Win rate
100%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027?
173 shares @ 24.8¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.39
$18.47
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?
160 shares @ 20.5¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$13.57
$-19.22
- YES
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?
40 shares @ 35.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 4, 2027$13.40
$-0.60
- YES
Will Matthew Stafford be on the cover of Madden NFL 27?
60 shares @ 2.9¢·now 21.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.08
$11.35
- YES
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?
110 shares @ 29.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.59
$-19.16
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
35 shares @ 9.2¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.68
$5.42
- YES
Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November?
59 shares @ 16.5¢·now 13.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$7.66
$-2.08
- NO
Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?
160 shares @ 54.2¢·now 4.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.72
$-80.08
- YES
Will Sergei Pavlovich become UFC champion in 2026?
40 shares @ 93.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.80
$-32.40
- YES
Will Becky Hammon win the 2026 WNBA Coach of the Year award?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Sep 25, 2026$3.30
$-10.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Boeing (BA) beat quarterly earnings?$2.94Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$0.27Jul 28, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?$0.01Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 29?$0.11Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Black Forest Labs have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m?$0.01Jul 28, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$7.48Jul 28, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$0.22Jul 28, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 28?$0.50Jul 28, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.07Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 29?$3.30Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 29?$3.39Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 30?$1.00Jul 28, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$8.36Jul 28, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMCoca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5%-5%?$1.00Jul 28, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon post "Tesla" on X this week?$0.83Jul 28, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America fail by end of 2026?$0.19Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bank of America fail by end of 2026?$11.18Jul 28, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 30?$2.70Jul 28, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 55 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$0.09Jul 28, 13:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
42 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.