Querulous-Marble
0xf33e2f782eb1c1c426badb50af841a18d9540ab8
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$653.10
Total PnL
$-612.09
Realised
$-52.20
Win rate
12%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?
50 shares @ 92.1¢·now 72.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$36.35
$-9.70
- NO
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?
50 shares @ 71.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.00
$0.50
- NO
Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$34.25
$-11.25
- NO
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
50 shares @ 99.7¢·now 68.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2028$34.02
$-15.82
- NO
Will Clavicular visit the United Kingdom in 2026?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.50
$-12.00
- NO
Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$25.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Nate Powell advance to the general election for WA-05?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$22.50
$-22.50
- YES
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
50 shares @ 59.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$20.50
$-9.00
- NO
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
30 shares @ 85.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$20.23
$-5.26
- NO
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
50 shares @ 54.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?$12.90Jul 28, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?$13.50Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLRelay FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?$0.14Jul 28, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYRelay FDV above $1.2B one day after launch?$0.15Jul 28, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?$13.80Jul 28, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$19.23Jul 28, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?$28.50Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$20.10Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?$17.05Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?$4.64Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-23 House seat?$4.80Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat?$3.48Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat?$3.60Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?$20.00Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$2.66Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$3.01Jul 28, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$25.50Jul 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$19.07Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?$25.56Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$32.75Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.