0xf34f7afc379ae96e8da4bb927cc03937f7afcf8e
0xf34f7afc379ae96e8da4bb927cc03937f7afcf8e
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$44.99
Total PnL
$4.12
Realised
$-2.22
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24?
17 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$16.67
$8.84
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
17 shares @ 26.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.25
$2.90
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 83.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$5.95
$0.98
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$5.68
$0.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 25?
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$5.00
$2.95
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$4.44
$0.44
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?
17 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.67
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
9 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.56
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
9 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?$0.00Mar 20, 03:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?$0.00Mar 19, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 21:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?$0.00Mar 17, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$5.00Mar 17, 04:13 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 16, 9PM ET$5.66Mar 17, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$0.00Mar 17, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$5.00Mar 17, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - March 16, 9PM ET$5.00Mar 17, 01:22 UTC
- REDEEMUS Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5$0.00Mar 17, 01:17 UTC
- REDEEMCoinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 16?$5.74Mar 17, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5$5.00Mar 16, 19:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$5.95Mar 16, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?$4.97Mar 16, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?$4.00Mar 16, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYCoinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 16?$4.99Mar 16, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?$5.00Mar 16, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?$4.33Mar 16, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?$12.17Mar 16, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?$0.00Mar 16, 09:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $4.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 11:48 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 03:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.