Confused-Alteration
0xf3c1d20253731870c9d4f557c8572e75a48cd2e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$14.19
Total PnL
$-366.17
Realised
$-21.28
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
115 shares @ 19.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.95
$-10.95
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
32 shares @ 9.5¢·now 6.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.02
$-0.98
- YES
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- NO
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch?
9879 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 7?
9281 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.28
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on December 8?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$21.90Apr 10, 11:28 UTC
- REWARD$3.91Apr 9, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$0.53Apr 9, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 7?$10.00Apr 7, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?$5.00Apr 7, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?$1.00Apr 4, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$1.00Apr 4, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 4, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.00Apr 1, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$5.60Mar 27, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$14.20Mar 27, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$6.24Mar 26, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$0.78Mar 26, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$0.78Mar 26, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$12.00Mar 26, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$4.40Mar 26, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$4.60Mar 26, 19:19 UTC
- REWARD$16.76Mar 24, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$16.76Mar 24, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$7.99Mar 24, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 22:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 10, 11:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.