Colossal-Nail
0xf45e1a141da151e1bdc2a4a526851a38e8112ce2
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$614.94
Total PnL
$8.52
Realised
$8.60
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
576 shares @ 50.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$368.82
$80.90
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
576 shares @ 50.0¢·now 35.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$207.01
$-80.90
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.88
$-0.01
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 0°C on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.88
$-0.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.68
$-0.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.68
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May 15?$9.70May 15, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on May 15?$9.70May 15, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 0°C on May 15?$9.90May 15, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 15?$9.90May 15, 02:52 UTC
- MERGEWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$30.10May 15, 02:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 13, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on May 9?$1.10May 12, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 9?$1.50May 12, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9?$1.70May 12, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 9?$1.90May 12, 06:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 9, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on May 9?$1.10May 8, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9?$1.70May 8, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 9?$1.50May 8, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 9?$1.90May 8, 08:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $66.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 13:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 02:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".