Selfish-Coordination
0xf4b773b59d10bae42e748996a0ce33a20b46f9e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
199
Open notional
$84.95
Total PnL
$-35.9K
Realised
$196.73
Win rate
83%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 199- NO
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?
100 shares @ 73.5¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.95
$11.45
- NO
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 26, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?
8046 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-85.89
- NO
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
6220 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-175.48
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?
4214 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-896.00
- NO
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?
4000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-71.64
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?
4000 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-799.98
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025?
3310 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-502.71
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
3000 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?
2700 shares @ 36.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-994.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$60.41May 9, 20:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$62.20Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLRobinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?$65.00Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLTaliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31?$62.72Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? $74.00Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$85.00Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$88.00Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rami leave Babymonster?$85.20Feb 4, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$95.10Feb 4, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$132.49Feb 4, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother Elon baby by June 30?$146.00Feb 4, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$273.56Feb 4, 15:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31?$100.00Feb 3, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$200.00Feb 3, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 28?$500.00Jan 29, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 3?$488.40Jan 27, 21:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 27?$500.00Jan 27, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 31?$136.00Jan 24, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 31?$340.00Jan 24, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 30?$335.00Jan 23, 23:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
38/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $227.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 20:08 UTC
- Last active
- May 9, 20:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.