Sour-Astrakhan
0xf4fe4aeea49c54aa73ec946ab2eebd02ee42f6e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
167
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-4.1K
Realised
$-80.92
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 167- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
715 shares @ 79.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$682.05
$115.06
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on July 30?
211 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$210.82
$0.83
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on July 30?
121 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$120.63
$0.63
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
111 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$110.66
$1.48
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
86 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$85.91
$0.91
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
61 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$61.07
$1.12
- NO
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
53 shares @ 96.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$52.78
$1.30
- NO
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
52 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$51.96
$1.97
- NO
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
50 shares @ 96.1¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$49.45
$1.70
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 30?
49 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.33
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 30?$15.08Jul 30, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 30?$8.16Jul 30, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 30?$4.92Jul 30, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 30?$12.62Jul 30, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on July 30?$0.41Jul 30, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 30?$4.98Jul 30, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$3.12Jul 30, 20:22 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on July 30?$1.03Jul 30, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on July 30?$70.76Jul 30, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 30?$10.98Jul 30, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 30?$30.00Jul 30, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$15.67Jul 30, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be less than 120m?$5.82Jul 30, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on July 31?$10.00Jul 30, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on July 31?$1.00Jul 30, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,150 on July 30?$6.44Jul 30, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,150 on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 15:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $15.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 04:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 22:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.