Actual-Treaty
0xf50384821bf039d53bc284c1adaec3d8f5eb51ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$270.00
Total PnL
$-803.98
Realised
$15.67
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
146 shares @ 63.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$119.72
$27.74
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 4?
100 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$100.00
$0.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
57 shares @ 46.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.63
$15.05
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.53
$1.57
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.13
$1.82
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
1000 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
325 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
318 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-39.88
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
254 shares @ 97.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-248.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
238 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.