0xf504c668032dd89ec0125c64f1f3f7d4ad77b97b
0xf504c668032dd89ec0125c64f1f3f7d4ad77b97b
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
84
Open notional
$259.63
Total PnL
$-6.4K
Realised
$-7.17
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
809 shares @ 58.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.86
$-392.41
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
135 shares @ 37.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$69.59
$19.59
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
588 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.88
$-44.12
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
87 shares @ 23.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$22.17
$2.17
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
333 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.47
$-5.53
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
10 shares @ 96.8¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.12
$0.12
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
12 shares @ 86.2¢·now 75.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$8.70
$-1.30
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.81
$-9.19
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
225 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.79
$-99.21
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
93 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.23
$-38.05
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.