0xf5286079ada8dcfeaa44f7f1c87e1ec37c127e5b
0xf5286079ada8dcfeaa44f7f1c87e1ec37c127e5b
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$121.18
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$3.56
Win rate
64%
90 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?
22 shares @ 83.5¢·now 87.4¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$18.87
$0.83
- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9.5B?
19 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.8¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$16.67
$0.71
- NO
Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
17 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.99
$0.86
- NO
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027?
19 shares @ 83.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$15.09
$-0.66
- NO
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by July 31?
19 shares @ 82.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$14.92
$-0.75
- NO
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
17 shares @ 88.2¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$12.21
$-3.08
- NO
Yo FDV above $200M one day after launch?
14 shares @ 79.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.73
$-0.45
- YES
TownSquare FDV above $100M one day after launch?
13 shares @ 80.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.24
$-0.16
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by December 31?
18 shares @ 86.0¢·now 34.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.20
$-9.28
- YES
Will 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
102 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$0.26
$-1.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?$4.26Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?$7.36Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$5.04Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$4.50Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$5.58Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$9.13Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 30?$4.75Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$8.91Jul 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$13.92Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 310m and 320m?$4.62Jul 28, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?$9.68Jul 28, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$9.46Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$0.66Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 27 2026?$3.63Jul 28, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 Week of July 27 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$4.56Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$10.89Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$4.43Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$9.14Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$5.28Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 90 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
90 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 90 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.