Wallet digest

active

Activity score

64/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$105.92

Total PnL

$-84.91

Realised

$-15.48

Win rate

42%

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 42

NO
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?
16 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$15.79
$0.71
NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 58.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$11.34
$1.14
NO
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
11 shares @ 82.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$10.09
$1.05
NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?
7 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$7.30
$0.14
YES
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
10 shares @ 56.6¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$7.03
$1.26
NO
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?
7 shares @ 83.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$6.57
$1.11
NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?
6 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$6.15
$0.12
NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?
5 shares @ 95.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$5.15
$0.23
NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
5 shares @ 81.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$5.05
$0.95
NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?
5 shares @ 92.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$4.75
$0.35

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$3.70Jul 7, 17:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$1.18Jul 4, 06:24 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$4.09Jun 30, 13:38 UTC
TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?$1.66Jun 30, 13:23 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$12.78Jun 30, 13:23 UTC
TRADESELLWill July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?$2.17Jun 30, 13:22 UTC
TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?$24.26Jun 30, 13:22 UTC
REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?$0.43Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?$0.00Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?$0.74Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?$0.00Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?$0.89Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?$0.00Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?$2.16Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?$0.00Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?$2.90Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?$0.00Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?$3.01Jun 30, 13:21 UTC
REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?$0.00Jun 30, 13:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

32/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

42% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity31 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry17 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 16
Avg trade size: $4.79
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 21, 07:36 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 17:28 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 20:47:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data