Astonishing-Armpit
0xf5e132e33f2e0e444203849bb57a99b380b156df
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$19.90
Total PnL
$-19.59
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will India join the Board of Peace?
7 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$7.32
$4.32
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.56
$4.56
- YES
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.27
$3.27
- NO
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.75
$-0.25
- NO
Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.58
$-0.42
- YES
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.72
- YES
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
81 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 13, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$1.00Mar 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?$2.00Mar 13, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?$0.00Mar 13, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?$0.00Mar 13, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Apple TV" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?$1.41Mar 13, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?$2.04Mar 13, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Mar 13, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by March 31?$2.18Mar 6, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15?$1.50Feb 28, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 1 NYT banner headline by February 28?$1.14Feb 28, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?$1.00Feb 28, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?$1.00Feb 28, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?$2.27Feb 28, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. strike on Somalia by February 14?$0.00Feb 25, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Grok 4.20 be released on March 11, 2026?$0.00Feb 25, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?$0.00Feb 25, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?$0.00Feb 25, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?$0.00Feb 25, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMEspresso FDV above $100M one day after launch?$0.00Feb 25, 20:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 18, 09:22 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 13, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.