Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
Probability
99¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+17.4pp
24h Vol
$79.6K
Liquidity
$29.4K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 17pp over 24h
Now 99¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.7× turnover
$79.6k traded against $29.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 94¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5738.7h
Price movement
+17.4pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.0pp at 2d ago (to 64¢).
Show top 8 of 52 hourly moves
- 21:18 · +15.9pp → 99¢
- 18:00 · +14.9pp → 99¢
- 16:00 · +14.6pp → 100¢
- 12:00 · +14.6pp → 100¢
- 1d ago · -16.0pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · -18.0pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 63¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 64¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister of Romania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilie Bolojan and the government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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