Ordinary-Dress
0xf5e814660a5a5ac071390a36122e7bc7c1309fbd
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.5K
Total PnL
$4.6K
Realised
$6.0K
Win rate
97%
106 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
17066 shares @ 0.4¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$477.85
$406.22
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
1250 shares @ 2.9¢·now 30.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$386.87
$351.01
- YES
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
725 shares @ 5.3¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$250.40
$211.63
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
650 shares @ 11.7¢·now 25.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$165.75
$89.84
- YES
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
14439 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$151.61
$51.07
- YES
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
900 shares @ 4.9¢·now 16.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$148.50
$104.81
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
764 shares @ 11.2¢·now 17.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$129.85
$44.53
- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
950 shares @ 8.4¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$123.03
$42.93
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
1600 shares @ 3.1¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$105.60
$56.60
- YES
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
16265 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.46
$-45.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 29, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.04Jul 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$3.61Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$36.39Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$0.00Jul 28, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?$0.28Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?$0.71Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?$0.42Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?$0.34Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?$0.09Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$2.75Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$2.75Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$2.75Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$4.57Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Jul 28, 20:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 106 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
106 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 106 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.