0xf5fb84adb218a0a648d6b458c560a98f02d776d5
0xf5fb84adb218a0a648d6b458c560a98f02d776d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$639.85
Total PnL
$-365.86
Realised
$-183.61
Win rate
88%
77 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?
41 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$40.61
$0.61
- NO
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
31 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$31.30
$1.25
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 18?
21 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$20.75
$0.73
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$10.98
$0.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 18?
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$10.92
$0.87
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 18?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$10.81
$1.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February 19?
11 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$10.75
$0.75
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 20?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$10.69
$0.64
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on February 21?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$10.69
$0.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 21?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$10.69
$0.64
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 3°C on April 25?$26.29Apr 27, 12:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on April 26?$101.21Apr 27, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 25?$102.19Apr 27, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on April 26?$0.00Apr 27, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 26?$0.00Apr 26, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on April 26?$62.43Apr 26, 07:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on April 26?$37.77Apr 26, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 3°C on April 25?$0.00Apr 26, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.60 on April 25?$0.00Apr 25, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 25?$0.00Apr 25, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 3°C on April 25?$26.03Apr 25, 05:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 0°C or below on April 24?$0.00Apr 25, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 25?$0.41Apr 25, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 25?$50.69Apr 25, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 25?$49.05Apr 25, 00:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on April 23?$70.70Apr 24, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 22?$71.85Apr 24, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 24?$71.02Apr 24, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 23?$72.52Apr 24, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 24?$0.00Apr 24, 19:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 77 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
77 closed markets, 88% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $32.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 18:55 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 12:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 77 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.