Jumbo-Colon
0xf6a8966a5909ef4fa58829130bb91a521f80800d
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$149.55
Total PnL
$-824.97
Realised
$-67.47
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
367 shares @ 31.1¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.61
$-9.48
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.99
$0.99
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
181 shares @ 20.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.95
$-17.15
- NO
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?
1686 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.69
- NO
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
657 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-46.00
- BUCKS
Bucks vs. Clippers
179 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?
120 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-29.95
- YES
Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-04?
120 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-59.81
- ALEXANDER BUBLIK
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
119 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-74.96
- NO
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?$5.80Jul 20, 21:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.