Every-Chives
0xf75c069947df17fdff650cdca327cc3a474d838d
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$92.84
Total PnL
$-566.70
Realised
$-72.75
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
76 shares @ 77.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$63.84
$5.32
- NO
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?
29 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.00
$10.15
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
863 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-233.01
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?
568 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-68.16
- YES
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?
377 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-170.78
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 25 be between 2,250,000 and 2,500,000?
71 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-21.30
- YES
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?
41 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.17
- NO
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMParamount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?$1.00Jun 9, 02:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the RSF capture Kadugli by January 31?$40.00Jun 9, 02:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iran next?$989.00Jun 9, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?$52.60Feb 8, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during the announcement on December 22?$227.00Jan 12, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill ENA: Dream BBQ win Outstanding Visual Style at the 2025 Steam Awards?$933.00Jan 12, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)$0.54Jan 11, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike Iran next?$632.96Jan 11, 11:42 UTC
- TRADESELLInsurrection Act invoked by June 30?$48.10Jan 11, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLInsurrection Act invoked by June 30?$150.40Jan 11, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS bank failure by March 31?$122.84Jan 11, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLInsurrection Act invoked by June 30?$219.78Jan 11, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYInsurrection Act invoked by June 30?$436.15Jan 10, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLStripe IPO before 2027?$56.42Jan 10, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStripe IPO before 2027?$11.16Jan 10, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStripe IPO before 2027?$11.47Jan 10, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStripe IPO before 2027?$79.05Jan 10, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$166.00Jan 10, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?$168.00Jan 9, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLRamp IPO before 2027?$11.73Jan 9, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $100.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 25, 08:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 02:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.