Digital-Cafe
0xf75ce947eef753f0d7c65edcede8c45346ff0387
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$32.35
Win rate
43%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on January 12?
1517 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.72
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
1145 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-31.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?
1074 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 23?
1029 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-16.51
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
1017 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 15-21 be less than 17,500,000?
790 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-13.98
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
632 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by May 31, 2026?
625 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on December 23?
560 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-2.84
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$70.33Jul 1, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$24.10Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026?$75.10Jul 1, 10:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026?$15.22Jul 1, 08:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026?$27.24Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$15.24Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$43.98Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$22.99Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$44.44Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$125.52Jun 18, 04:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17?$1.06Jun 17, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$18.38Jun 17, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$48.00Jun 17, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$23.96Jun 17, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$33.69Jun 17, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$28.46Jun 17, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17?$1.00Jun 16, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$33.00Jun 16, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$30.00Jun 15, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?$60.00Jun 14, 13:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $42.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 21:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 14:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.