Parched-Meatball
0xf79b246bf45aa82475e888c82922feee484f6b0a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$105.16
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-806.84
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of August 10 2026?
92 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$92.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
13 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$13.05
$-0.05
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12?
738 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-12.78
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
703 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-181.29
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26?
690 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-182.59
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 12?
636 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-162.09
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4?
616 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-157.31
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 26?
605 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-159.85
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
585 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.34
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 16?
550 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of August 10 2026?$92.00Aug 14, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds$3.59Aug 14, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 13 2026?$95.10Aug 14, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 13 2026?$95.00Jul 17, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$2.78Jul 17, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?$98.10Jul 17, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?$98.00Jun 30, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of June 1 2026?$98.30Jun 26, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of June 1 2026?$98.11Jun 5, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$98.12Jun 5, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$98.02Jun 1, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or below on May 30?$10.41Jun 1, 07:57 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by May 31?$87.61Jun 1, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by May 31?$87.52May 31, 05:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$87.53May 31, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$87.44May 30, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$86.88May 30, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$87.02May 30, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs$6.30May 30, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$13.10May 30, 09:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $78.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 10:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 09:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.