Fair-Waiver
0xf79e3ae4952139f0919f9911743ddec1023e6c70
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
58
Open notional
$1.80
Total PnL
$-390.94
Realised
$-0.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
6 shares @ 15.9¢·now 13.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
641 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?
128 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
81 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
73 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-23?
54 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-21.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.04Jun 23, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?$1.03Jun 13, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 12, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$3.04Jun 12, 19:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17?$53.19Jun 12, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17?$50.09May 17, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$5.00Apr 26, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?$2.00Mar 16, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?$5.00Mar 10, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?$2.90Mar 10, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3)$0.00Dec 2, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLKnicks vs. Celtics$50.00Dec 2, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Celtics$50.00Dec 2, 03:35 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3)$0.00Dec 2, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3)$113.64Dec 2, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?$2.90Dec 1, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?$29.00Dec 1, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$29.39Dec 1, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3)$50.00Dec 1, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$29.00Dec 1, 08:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $12.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 5, 19:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 12:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.