Excited-Carol
0xf7b3094865495f74f01bbf7fbcc83c535da5eeb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$17.9K
Total PnL
$2.0K
Realised
$1.0K
Win rate
100%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
4510 shares @ 88.4¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.3K
$282.73
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2534 shares @ 79.2¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$260.13
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
3600 shares @ 58.8¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.1K
$-9.98
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
2327 shares @ 69.2¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$99.62
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
1200 shares @ 95.7¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.1K
$-17.60
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
993 shares @ 79.8¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$978.76
$186.42
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
1000 shares @ 86.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$874.98
$7.50
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
800 shares @ 95.4¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$777.99
$14.82
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
800 shares @ 88.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$731.99
$22.50
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
1500 shares @ 39.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$577.50
$-7.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$28.00Jun 18, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?$22.11Jun 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$133.66Jun 18, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$38.00Jun 18, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$55.00Jun 18, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$36.00Jun 18, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$191.00Jun 18, 11:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? $799.99Jun 18, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$108.00Jun 18, 06:56 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.31Jun 18, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$195.00Jun 18, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?$26.97Jun 18, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?$54.22Jun 18, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$35.00Jun 18, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$15.39Jun 18, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$360.00Jun 18, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$80.00Jun 18, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$80.00Jun 18, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$43.18Jun 18, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?$17.00Jun 18, 01:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $67.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 16:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 13:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.