Puzzled-Scow
0xf7d8316bb3c7cbcadc186e55a1235d62a02f6082
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$254.42
Realised
$47.18
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1019 shares @ 80.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$962.74
$141.15
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$191.20
$21.20
- NO
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
100 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.00
$3.00
- NO
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?
95 shares @ 86.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.00
$11.30
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
80 shares @ 53.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.20
$28.80
- NO
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?
80 shares @ 91.8¢·now 88.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.16
$-2.28
- NO
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?
68 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.62
$12.86
- NO
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.72
$0.63
- NO
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.63
$0.43
- NO
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
1 shares @ 83.4¢·now 59.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.81
$-0.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Jul 2, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike 7 countries in 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Jul 2, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike 7 countries in 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$0.00Jul 2, 05:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?$100.00Jul 1, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$100.00Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?$100.00Jul 1, 06:25 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.09Jun 25, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.00Jun 24, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike 7 countries in 2026?$0.00Jun 24, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$0.00Jun 24, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$0.00Jun 24, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Jun 24, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$8.40Jun 24, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$51.20Jun 24, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.85Jun 24, 15:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $10.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 15:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 18:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.