Ragged-Trousers
0xf7ed21d9f47b842d2bd6dd0776824daccf3eb03b
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.1K
Realised
$-2.40
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
1191 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-429.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
827 shares @ 59.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-492.75
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
545 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-255.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
365 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-196.91
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
313 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-197.28
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
263 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-137.82
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
237 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-127.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
219 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-118.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
216 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-61.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
184 shares @ 33.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-62.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jul 20, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Dai Dai" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?$2.02Jul 19, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$2.01Jul 19, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jul 13, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYAmazon 2026 capex above $170B?$2.00Jul 10, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Dai Dai" be played during the World Cup Finals Halftime Show?$2.00Jul 9, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.01Jul 6, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$2.00Jul 6, 02:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$2.03Jul 2, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?$1.06Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$2.00Jul 1, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?$4.04Jul 1, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$2.02Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$6.36Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.15Jun 30, 19:10 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?$2.07Jun 27, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?$2.00Jun 26, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?$2.00Jun 26, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?$2.00Jun 24, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$2.01Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
4/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 14:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 05:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.