0xf8202f9ebdbee7b9e0867ce658cc9e339556a8c7
0xf8202f9ebdbee7b9e0867ce658cc9e339556a8c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$12.86
Total PnL
$-32.72
Realised
$-18.68
Win rate
23%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
10 shares @ 41.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.07
$5.87
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?
2 shares @ 59.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$2.10
$0.85
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.34
$-0.71
- YES
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.13
$-0.57
- YES
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
1 shares @ 42.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.12
$-0.30
- YES
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
1 shares @ 29.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.11
$-0.18
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 4?
54 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.58
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
14 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.82
- YES
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-04?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
4 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-04?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 4?$0.00Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-04?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 4?$0.00Mar 17, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 16, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?$0.00Mar 16, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 16, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$0.00Mar 16, 19:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 4?$0.00Mar 16, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.00Mar 16, 19:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 00:36 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 22:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.