Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$523.00
Liquidity
$17.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.4h
- 16:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).