0xf847df60af3d028b82949c7b76882a2a9244ee6a
0xf847df60af3d028b82949c7b76882a2a9244ee6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$13.86
Total PnL
$-16.06
Realised
$-13.87
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
4 shares @ 90.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.42
$0.42
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 80.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.77
$-0.46
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
4 shares @ 56.5¢·now 74.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.97
$0.71
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
4 shares @ 84.4¢·now 66.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.50
$-0.67
- YES
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
5 shares @ 6.7¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.19
$-0.14
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
4 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.28
- YES
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?
3 shares @ 52.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-0.43
Recent activity
- REWARD$4.39Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$122.63Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$4.95Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$27.37Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$56.53Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$56.60Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?$56.67Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$23.29Jul 27, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$23.49Jul 27, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$160.12Jul 27, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$164.29Jul 27, 05:35 UTC
- REWARD$6.45Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$5.44Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$182.89Jul 25, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$184.10Jul 25, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$9.83Jul 25, 11:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$22.13Jul 25, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$47.54Jul 25, 11:30 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.52Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.10Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $54.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 21:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.