Cluttered-Gain
0xf86c606c8a360c38037cdab2f81fb5ed2e94ba99
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-107.30
Realised
$-0.94
Win rate
67%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- NO
Will Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 265M?
142 shares @ 61.6¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$102.24
$14.74
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
102 shares @ 92.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$101.91
$7.45
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
130 shares @ 78.4¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$101.58
$-0.71
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?
95 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$95.35
$1.38
- NO
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?
120 shares @ 60.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.20
$21.55
- YES
Will Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?
87 shares @ 54.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$50.91
$3.88
- NO
McDonald's (MCD) Q2 global comparable sales growth 2.5%-3.5%?
54 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$45.89
$2.16
- YES
Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 8%?
171 shares @ 36.1¢·now 23.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$40.18
$-21.54
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?
40 shares @ 88.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.80
$2.40
- YES
McDonald's (MCD) Q2 global comparable sales growth <1.5%?
102 shares @ 27.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$34.65
$7.13
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 28?$28.56Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 28?$4.99Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 28?$42.21Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 28?$23.67Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 28?$11.14Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?$1.03Jul 28, 17:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump post "Rigged" on Truth Social this week?$0.00Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$6.84Jul 28, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$5.14Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$35.64Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$3.20Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$3.15Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "GitHub" 10+ times during earnings call?$16.17Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft say "GitHub" 10+ times during earnings call?$16.17Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$23.53Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$71.39Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 8%?$18.50Jul 28, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 8%?$7.82Jul 28, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "No No No" this week?$0.45Jul 28, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 225M?$18.48Jul 28, 11:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $10.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 04:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.